“No matter how crowded APC becomes or how many politicians he recruits, Tinubu can lose, Not because he lacks tactics. But because he lacks the people.”
By Ademola Payne
Someone said “Tinubu is ten steps ahead.”
I said: Even chess masters lose when the crowd flips the board.
In Sudan, Omar al-Bashir ruled for 30 years. His grip was solid. The army was loyal. The opposition was fragmented. Then bread prices soared. The same streets he controlled for decades rose against him. He fell—without a single vote cast.
In Zambia, Edgar Lungu ran the show like a marathon champion. His party controlled the media, the state, and the money. But a 38-year-old opposition candidate, Hakainde Hichilema, turned youth anger into votes. The system broke. Power changed hands.
In Ghana, John Mahama tried a comeback in 2020. He had the name, the structure, the money. But Ghanaians remembered their economic suffering more than his campaign promises. Nana Akufo-Addo edged him out again. Hunger doesn’t forget.
In Nigeria, Tinubu may have captured the party. He may welcome PDP defectors daily with red carpets and fanfare. But he hasn’t captured the people’s stomachs.
Fuel is over ₦900.
Electricity is a rumour.
Naira buys less every week.
Jobs are vanishing.
Students are stuck.
Hospitals are ghost towns.
And every street corner has someone whispering: “This is not what we voted for.”
Even with all his famed political machinery, Tinubu faces one brutal truth—people vote with their pain, not party loyalty.
It’s not about PDP collapsing. It’s about whether Nigerians can breathe under APC.
Remember Gambia? Yahya Jammeh said he’d rule for “a billion years.” But when the votes said otherwise, even his loyal army stepped back. He was escorted out.
When the people no longer believe in you, strategies turn into noise. Defections become theatre. And power quietly slips away.
No matter how crowded APC becomes or how many politicians he recruits, Tinubu can lose.
Not because he lacks tactics. But because he lacks the people.
And when the people leave, the ballot speaks louder than propaganda.
